Great article by Mark Coker on the Smashwords blog:
Welcome to my annual publishing industry predictions for the year ahead. This year I share 12 predictions.
Before I speculate about what 2015 holds for authors and publishers, let’s reflect for a moment about how self publishing has transformed the book publishing landscape.
Thanks to ebook self publishing, every writer in the world has democratized access to the tools and knowledge of professional publishing. It’s now possible for writers to make their books instantly accessible, discoverable and affordable to billions of readers around the world.
Most exciting of all, we’re still in the early days of the ebook self publishing revolution. I’m confident that decades from now, ebook self publishing will be viewed by historians as no less transformative than the advent of the Gutenberg printing press.
Despite the incredible opportunities available to every indie author, clouds loom on the horizon. Recent years of exponential ebook growth have given way to a new normal of slower growth, greater competition and disruptive business models and power struggles. These factors create new threats and opportunities for publishing industry participants.
This is why annual predictions are so useful. To the extent any of us can predict the future (an exercise fraught with folly I might add!), predictions help stir the imagination, spark constructive debate and assist with strategic planning.
So without further delay, I present to you my predictions for 2015. Enjoy!
Mark Coker’s Publishing Predictions for 2015
1. More authors will aspire to publish indie – In 2008 when I founded Smashwords, nearly all writers aspired to traditionally publish. Self-publishing was viewed as the option of last resort – the option for failed writers. Today the former stigma of self publishing is evaporating. Indie authorship has become a global cultural movement, as I described when I published the Indie Author Manifesto earlier this year. The indie author movement will grow stronger in 2015. Traditionally published authors will continue to transition to indie, led by midlist authors. We’ll also see more hybrid authors reorient their publishing strategy back in the direction of indieville.
2. Indie authors will capture more ebook market share – The percentage of reader dollars going to indie ebooks will increase. The growth will be fueled by a continued increase in the number of indie-published ebooks, and by more indie authors adopting best practices to publish with greater pride and professionalism. In March I shared some of my longer term market share projections here and here.
Find the rest at The Smashwords blog.